Ones and Zeros

Over at WWVB there’s been a regular series of posts about aircraft delays and their causes. (Hint: the delays aren’t caused by air traffic control or FAA ineptness.) In one post, he mentions that a good rate for runway use is 60 takeoffs or landings per runway per hour in perfect weather and either 50 or 40/hour in poorer weather. Get The Flick also has been trying to push rational thought in connection with airline operations too.

But if that’s all true then why is it at the EAA Airventure show in Oshkosh WI every year they land about 150 per hour per runway? Doesn’t that put the lie to that 60/operations/hour/runway number? Wired has a nicely written article about the Oshkosh operations that’s mostly accurate (they don’t actually split the runway lengthwise). Wired’s made a name for themselves in largely accurate technical writing, unlike many media outlets.

There’s a couple tricks to getting this capacity at Oshkosh. First, many, although not all, aircraft flying into Oshkosh are smaller general aviation aircraft and need less separation than large airliners. Thus, the FAA has a reduced separation rule, for this event only, where airplanes follow each other at 1/2 mile distances. This is much closer than normal. There are also special communications methods, and special procedures 

But there’s some tricks too. First, one taxiway has been converted to a runway for the week of the event. Second, they actually land two aircraft on the same runway at the same time. Pilots are instructed to land on a colored dot on the runway. The two colored dots are separated by 1500 feet. They’ve doubled the number of runways by using a taxiway, and doubled the capacity of runways by landing or taking off two at a time. Ground personnel expedite aircraft off the runway rapidly too, again through special procedures (signs in the cockpit windows).

The 3000 aircraft operations (landings or take offs) over ten hours during the event is 300/hour. But with two runways that’s 150/hour/runway. And with the dots doubling each runway, that’s about 38/hour/runway/dot. Some operations will take the whole runway (landing the A380), or require more runway for takeoff so that quick calculation isn’t completely accurate.

Even adjusting for the operations requiring the whole runway, that’s well within the 40-60 operations per hour seen at all the other airports. The takeaway lesson is that capacity is directly tied to runways, and only loosely and indirectly connected to air traffic control.

Bob Lutz of GM is quoted in AdAge as saying in 2006, “I was getting so pissed off about reading about how the wonderful, far-sighted Toyota is the only one who understands technology.” In the article this was supposed to be the genesis of the Chevy Volt which has recently been announced will be released in November 2010 for sale at $40,000.

The Chevy Volt, basically a plug-in hybrid, will go 40 miles before the gas engine starts in. The Prius today (costing in the mid $20 thousands) has a smaller battery pack and will run the gas engine much sooner. However, Toyota’s also working on a plug-in hybrid that will be based on their successful Prius.

While Bob Lutz was so pissed off in 2006, he should have remembered back into the 90’s. The federal government under Clinton worked with the Detroit car manufacturers on a joint project to fund research on new car technology like hybrids. The idea was to kick-start innovation in the US on technology we could foresee the need for. Toyota wanted in on that, but was barred from joining. Nothing substantial came from the Detroit-based US-government-funded research effort, innovation and Detroit haven’t fit together for decades now.

But Toyota went off and funded their own internal research project out of their pocket. The best-selling Prius is the result of that effort. Toyota has also licensed the Prius hybrid drive train to Ford and others in the US when it became clear that customers demanded hybrids. Of course, the licensees are behind the curve of technical experience and progress, so they’re making cars with mid-thirties mileage instead of the 50-52 MPG that my Prius gets. So yes, Toyota understands technology, and they understand business too.  Especially given the decades-long slow demise of Detroit and the recent need for a bailout, I can’t say that about either GM or Lutz.

So, next time Lutz wants to get pissed off, he should remember that Toyota shouldn’t be the target of his wrath, instead the target should be his own company that wasted their opportunity to be ahead of the curve, and that wasted US tax dollars as well.

Karl Rove was to be the architect of the GOP permanent majority, but the legacy of the Bush administration is a Democratic majority. Note that I’m not keen on permanent majorities of any party. I think a good debate of a variety of points of view is a good idea. It’d be nice if the GOP would participate in that instead of lying and making up nonsense. Birthers, rabble-rousers, health care lies and other nonsense doesn’t further any useful or rational debate.

However, this strategy isn’t helping the GOP. The follow graphics struck me in their similarity that shows the effect of political mismanagement. Gallup released a poll of political party affiliation by state with the graphic below.

The above political map has some interesting correlation with the following unemployment map from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Funny how that works: Mismanage the country and screw up the economy and we’ll all eventually pay attention and vote you out.

On a recent flight instructor M and I overheard on 121.5, the emergency or “guard” frequency, the following:

Pilot voice repeatedly calling for a facility, three times.

Second voice, sternly: “You’re on guard.”

Pilot voice: “So are you!”

Second voice, officiously, “Yeah, but I’m supposed to be!”

Silence after that on the air. But in my plane we were laughing out loud.

The frequency 121.5 isn’t monitored anymore by COSPAS/SARSAT, the joint Russian/US search-and-rescue satellites, they use the newer PLB frequencies now. But all ATC facilities monitor 121.5, and pilots are encouraged to also monitor it if able. The SFRA (Special Flight Rules Area) NOTAM for the Washington DC area requires pilots to monitor if we have two radios.